Seattle sits on the type of ground that would amplify the effects of an earthquake. Scientists can't offer a firm prediction when the next one will happen...only the certainty that it will.

National Geographic YouTube video

New Zealanders have been given a rude awakening: it's past time to prepare for the "Big One," the long-feared massive earthquake that authorities have warned about for years.

Officials are assessing whether routinely dire warnings have yet led to the hoped-for sea change in the nation's preparedness as this small island nation picks up the pieces after a 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck its second-largest city, Christchurch, killing scores of people and trapping hundreds more.

According to Graeme Beattie, a structural engineer in Christchurch this week to look at the seismic reaction of structures, local building standards in place since the mid-2000s appear to have served the city well.

The news that at least 65 people have died in a 6.3 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand, comes just days before Seattle's own commemoration of the Nisqually Quake, which struck on February 28, 2001 and lasted 45 seconds.
New Zealand's tragedy serves as a stark reminder of how different things could have turned out, as well as a cautionary note against complacency. 

A 12-person project team of scientists, civil, structural, and geotechnical engineers, planners, and emergency managers created a "Seattle Fault Scenario" in 2005. They pointed out that much of Seattle's terrain, both downtown and south of downtown, would certainly liquefy in the case of a significant quake, and that lateral spreading and landslides would be expected as well...

SEATTLE, WA, February 22, 2011 — On the tenth anniversary of the Nisqually earthquake, the American Red Cross invites citizens of Western Washington to assess their own earthquake readiness and make disaster plans.

The 6. 8 Nisqually Earthquake rocked Washington State ten years ago on February 28th. This earthquake struck between Olympia and Tacoma, 30 miles southwest of Seattle. The American Red Cross stepped in right away and helped 200 families in Western Washington.

Just off the coasts of Washington and Oregon is an earthquake fault comparable to the one that broke in the Chilean earthquake. It's known as the Cascadia subduction zone. It triggered a massive earthquake three centuries ago that sent tsunamis all the way to Japan.

Furthermore, our cities are comparable to those in Chile. "The building stock is significantly more parallel to ours than it was in Haiti, where there were no building codes to enforce," says MRP Engineering's Mark Pierepierkarz of Newcastle, Washington. He helps to design earthquake-resistant constructions, notably two in Santiago, Chile. He also aided in the construction of an earthquake what-if scenario for Seattle.

Experts in the northwest have warned that the catastrophic earthquake in New Zealand is akin to what could happen in the United States.

The quake struck Christchurch, New Zealand, a city the size of Spokane, along a fault line that had been undetected until late September. That's when an even bigger quake struck New Zealand, but it only caused minor damage because it was situated far away from any major cities. The death toll was expected to grow to 300, according to officials in Christchurch.

Scientists have discovered evidence of shallow faults in the northwest in recent years, such as the Seattle fault, which runs beneath Qwest Field and closely follows Interstate-90.

The Alaskan Way Viaduct and Magnolia Bridge in Seattle, the Washington State Capitol and the Fourth Street Bridge in Olympia. The control tower of Seattle Tacoma International Airport and unreinforced brick or concrete buildings in Seattle's Pioneer Square and Sodo neighborhoods all sustained significant damage. The level of seismic threat in the Pacific Northwest hasn't changed in the ten years after the Nisqually earthquake shook buildings, unsettled nerves, and rolled the ground in Western Washington. However, scientific understanding of the threat has progressed, and our ability to analyze and prepare for it has greatly improved.

The level of seismic threat in the Pacific Northwest hasn't changed in the decade since the Nisqually earthquake shook buildings, unsettled nerves, and churned the ground in Western Washington. However, scientific understanding of the threat has progressed, and our ability to analyze and prepare for it has vastly improved.

Scientists understood a decade ago that Western Washington was vulnerable to considerably more powerful earthquakes than the magnitude 6.8 that shook Seattle on Feb. 28, 2001.

But it's what they've discovered in the ten years since the Nisqually earthquake that has some scientists concerned.