In some areas of the world, like California and Japan, earthquakes happen often enough that being prepared for one is common among residents. In locations like the Pacific Northwest, we experience few. The low frequency makes it much harder to take the risk seriously. The way we discuss the risk can also impact how motivated we are to prepare.

Let’s face it. When there is an 80% chance of snow sticking in the Willamette Valley, grocery stores turn into zoos! Humans are really good at preparing for emergencies when the risk is high and the timeframe is short.

(Image from FEMA: https://www.ready.gov/winter-weather)

Current estimates are that only about 5% of the population in the area expected to be impacted by Cascadia is 2-Weeks-Ready. Are so few ready because of how we are discussing risk? It’s multifaceted, with things like income, language barriers, and access to information playing a role, but yes, IMHO, the way we are discussing risk is playing a major role. And the results could be detrimental. So how likely is it that the earthquake will happen?

First and foremost, this page covers the log-normal model, but the likelihood can be viewed through failure analysis, as well (details on Surviving Cascadia’s Likelihood of an 8.0 page).

Log-Normal Model

The most common probability we hear is that there is a 37% chance the earthquake will occur in the next 50 years.

Read the full article on www.survivingcascadia.com